A deepening data desert
It's now drying up in the air above us
A few weeks back I bemoaned the lack of high-quality ground-based UV measurements in my Dearth of Data story. My colleague Ross Salawitch has led an important new paper along the same lines. He and his star-studded cast of co-authors show that same problem applies to a wide range of data sets, including measurements from satellites that are used to monitor the causes and effect of climate change and ozone depletion (and recovery), and the interactions between them.
The paper contains some great figures, but the crux of the problem is illustrated by their third one, which compares the present data coverage at left, with that expected in decades ahead (below).
There will be a hugely reduced capability to measuring water vapour, halogens, and ozone, all of which are implicated in climate changes as well as ozone depletion..
The rest of the paper goes on to illustrate how past data sets have revealed unexpected surprises in the state of the atmosphere. The biggest surprise in the past was of course the appearance of the ozone hole over Antarctica. But that was hardly discussed. The paper instead focussed on the effects of unpredictable events in the future like volcanic eruptions. As an example, they beautifully illustrated (below) impacts from the eruptions of El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Increased aerosols from both events caused reductions in ozone as well as a cooling of surface temperatures.In fact, that was the basis of thought to use the deliberate injection into the stratosphere to mitigate global warming.
The effects of climate change (including wildfires), and possible effects of geophysical engineering (intentional or unintended) could also be significant. Not having the capability to monitor their effects will be hugely detrimental in the years ahead as more drastic effects of climate change kick in. We’ll be groping in the dark for solutions.
Astoundingly, there’s nary a mention in the paper of dingbat donny’s effort to accelerate the loss of knowledge on such matters. I guess the authors know what side of their bread is buttered. Many of their jobs may already be under threat. Or perhaps the paper was already written before 20 January when the world of reason started to cave in.