Broken records and climate skeptics
Temperature records broken in 2023, and more on the way for 2024 ...
In a recent posting, I showed the dramatic increase in ocean heat content over recent decades. But we don’t live in the oceans. Although they are a better indicator of the problem (because of their huge inertia which averages out short-term changes), most of us are more concerned about air temperatures around us.
As expected, the news there isn’t good either. The plot below is from a recent Nature article. The staircase of increasing temperature shown by the orange bars tells a grim story. In 2023 we nearly got to the not-so-elusive ‘aspirational’ 1.5 threshold that COP27 dreamed of in Paris as recently as 2016.
While the overall increase is due to increasing greenhouse gases, there are occasional dips due to volcanic aerosols masking sunlight. Examples are in the 1980s (from the eruption of El Chichon in 1982) and 1990s (from the Pinatubo eruption in 1991). Other short-term departures from the inexorable rise are caused by fluctuations in the naturally-occurring El Niño/La Niña cycles. For example, the not-quite-so-high temperatures in 2021 and 2022 compared with 2020 were attributable to the La Niña, and some of the increase in 2023 year is down to the emergence of a strong El Niño since then. Because of these increases, the Nature article (and also James Hansen) speculate that the temperature this year is likely to exceed that 1.5 threshold.
The similar-looking plot below tells an interesting story too. It shows that last year - for the first time ever - every single day was warmer than the long-term average for that day. Ever since 2015, more than half the days each year have been warmer than those long term averages. In 2023, the long-term average was exceeded my more than 1.5 C every second day. That’s a huge increase over previous years. It never happened prior to 2015.
But, if you believe the dissenting voices from climate deniers, those plots must be all a set of carefully orchestrated lies.
Those climate deniers - who’ve so effectively numbed effective responses to the fossil-fueled problem - continue to bleat on.
A couple of weeks ago we heard of the death of a local climate skeptic. His name was Jock Allison. Apparently he was a good agricultural scientist, but he should have kept to his knitting. After I heard him give an error-laden talk on his climate-change views to a local club I tried to explain the errors of his ways to him via a series of emails. But like a lot of skeptics, he was a lot better at talking than listening.
Sadly, it appears he has a successor. A friend passed on the depressing news that another climate skeptic will be speaking in my home town tonight. It goes without saying that he’s an old white man. A retired Aussie school-teacher. I found this pdf on-line outlining the well-trodden climate-denier path he’ll be following. It’s full of the same old spins that any atmospheric physicist knows about (but because he’s just discovered it, he trumpianly assumes nobody else knew about it). I thought I’d go along and tell him why he’s wrong, but on second thoughts I can’t be bothered listening to his half-truths, and his accusations of me and my colleagues promulgating lies.
You get the idea of where he’s coming from his advertising blurb here …
I wonder who’s paying for his disservice to mankind? Some may see the irony in his venue choice, which seems to imply that he has God on his side. One thing’s for sure. He won’t be showing any graphs like those above, or any from my recent posts on the subject. Like here, here, or here. They don’t fit his narrative.
I hope he speaks to an empty room. Men of his ilk have done enough damage already.
Normally I schedule these to go out at 1 pm, but I’m leaving a bit later this time. 😊
Well said Richard! I’ve seen some of the gentleman’s rubbish on YouTube. Disheartening.
Totally agree with you. The naysayers are frightening.