Talking of heresy, my second name, Lloyd, is (I think) after the famous Lloyd Geering, who was an old friend of my parents. His wife at the time of my birth may have been a distant relative. A theologian with the Presbyterian church, he achieved notoriety in 1967 when they accused him of heresy. He was born in 1918 and is still going strong, as you can tell from this delightful report just last month.
In the last couple of weeks, I’ve talked about skin damage from UV in sunlight and the use of sunscreens to guard against it. That set me thinking …
At the risk of evoking howls of protests among my medical colleagues and health professionals, I do wonder - as a mere atmospheric researcher - why are the SPFs in modern sunscreens so large? Remember that the SPF is the supposed Sun Protection Factor. If you (correctly) apply an SPF50 sunscreen, the idea is that it should transmit only 1/50th of the sun-burning UV, so the time for skin-damage would be 50 times longer at the same UVI level. Though that interpretation has recently been called into question when it was shown that in sunlight, the SPFs of many sunscreens are less than 50 percent of their advertised values, as estimated in the laboratory.
No sunscreens are required for people with heavily pigmented skin, for whom skin cancer is extremely rare. In my ignorance on medical matters, I would have thought that all human skin should have evolved to cope adequately with the UV levels present in the sunlight received. But maybe there was a trade-off cost that arose as the darker-skinned populations migrated poleward and skin-colours lightened. Lighter skin tones were needed there to maintain healthy levels of vitamin D and folic acid. But the wavelengths for their induction are the same as that that induce skin damage. Perhaps there would be an inevitable cost? Another ‘Faustian’ bargain, as climate-scientist colleague James Hansen may have put it 😊.
Given that UV does indeed cause skin cancer, what is the real damaging dose? And does it depend on how long it takes for that dose to be reached? For the fairest skin types, the first sign of a skin damaging dose, as evidenced by skin reddening (i.e., erythema) the next morning, is generally considered to be about 2 SED, a dose that can be achieved in less than 15 minutes of exposure to UVI=10, or 150 minutes at UVI=1. But does that latter combination really result in the same skin damage? We don’t know, because erythema has been demonstrated only for exposures to UVIs greater than about 3. It’s possible that for UVIs lower than 3, repair mechanisms can keep up well enough to avoid damage. If that were the case, then it would be just the higher UVIs we need to be concerned about, not so much the daily dose. If that’s the case, the issue I raised here would be unimportant.
Whether or not superficial damage like sunburn leads to melanoma, the most dangerous form of skin cancer, is another question entirely. It’s just assumed to be the case. Although UV is almost certainly involved, it may be only after exposure at higher levels that these more dangerous outcomes occur.
Personally, I tend to worry about skin damage only when the UVI is greater than about 3 because such moderate values have always occurred throughout my ancestral homelands. That threshold is commonly used by health professionals too. If we need only to make sure we’re never exposed to UVI greater than 3, the required SPF for sunscreens would be much smaller. Given that UVI=25 is the highest measured anywhere on planet Earth, and that values greater than 20 rarely occur in populated areas, an SPF of around 7 should be sufficient. In the UK, where the UVI never exceeds 9, perhaps an SPF of 3 would suffice, or New Zealand, with a maximum UVI around 15, would an SPF of 5 do? Sunscreens with SPFs around that value were commonly available in New Zealand late last century, as you can see from this old bottle below, where the SPF rating is 6.

Nowadays, SPFs of 50 are perhaps the most common in New Zealand, and some are 100 or more.
As far as were aware, there haven’t been huge increases in UV over recent years, or even millennia. In northern Scotland, from whence my at-risk lighter skin may have evolved, UV levels are certainly much lower than here in New Zealand. But by no more than a factor of 5. Not a factor of 50 or more.
Noting that skin cancer does occur there, as well as here (at rates roughly proportional to UV levels), can it be that we now live too long, so accumulated skin damage is higher? Probably not, at least for melanoma, which can arise at an early age. In any case, with our modern lifestyle, the number of hours outdoors is surely less than in pre-industrial times.
Maybe it’s something to do with intermittency of exposure, or diet, or other environmental stressors present in the modern world. These could include factors as diverse as changing hygiene habits at home or changing patterns of international travel.
Is the modern lifestyle choice of a daily morning shower including de-greasing agents detrimental to skin health? In bygone years, perhaps those less frequent baths - usually in the evening rather than the morning - left the skin in a more protected state during the high UV period. It’s sometimes reported - without much evidence it seems - that the SPF of these skin-oils is rather low. Regardless of that, since my own brush with skin cancer, I’ve got into the habit of applying a protective moisturiser (SPF15) after showering, as a first line of protection.
The modern ‘snowbird’ habit of flying to warmer climates for the winter months is potentially more problematic. If your home is at mid- to high-latitudes, those winter excursions could easily more than double your annual UV dose. The initial sudden exposures for unacclimatised skin could be especially damaging. In the normal course of events, the slow increase in UV during spring months would allow some acclimatisation to the skin which could provide some natural protection by the time it’s really needed in summer.
Perhaps the high SPFs we see now are just in recognition of the fact that we never apply enough, or that the real SPF is rather lower than advertised. That’s my pick.
I just hope that the sunscreens themselves aren’t part of the problem. Either something in them, or perhaps (a possibly incorrect) perception of safety with their use that encourages prolonged exposure. The higher the SPF, perhaps the greater that misplaced perception.
Whatever the reason, as I noted in an earlier post, our incidence rates for skin cancer remain stubbornly persistent, and those for melanoma continue to increase, as you can see below, despite all the publicity and health warnings.

Food for thought. If any of you have more ideas, please share them as (preferably polite) comments.
In the meantime, stay safe by following the advice below from Sunsmart New Zealand. Use your common sense.
I finally had enough time to read the post properly! As usual, very interesting!! Thank you Richard!
I didn't know about the decrease of the SPF in sunlight compared to the one tested in the lab, I wonder why that is the case, shouldn't the power of UV rays be the same?? It seems a bit odd, what about the other studies done with real people in the sun that say that SPF50 decreases by x% after n hours and so on, didn't they test the actual SPF? What do you think about it?
You definitely gave me some food for thought, I actually used a spreadsheet to compare the time to get erythema with different SPFs (of course not taking into account the decrease caused by the amount used and the fact that in sunlight it seems to be lower) and I found out that with SPF 5 and UVI 10, you would get skin damage after around 75 minutes, the exact same amount of time it takes to get erythema with UVI 2. Which means that if you use the dose to assess skin damage, you would just need SPF 5 even with UVI 10 if you don't stay in the sun longer than 75 minutes. Isn't it fascinating??
With SPF50, you would need to stay in the sun for 750 minutes with UVI 10 to get erythema, which is a bit overkill if you ask me.
This means that if you apply SPF50 in the morning in the right amount, theoretically you would still have around SPF22 after 8h (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19000186/), which means that even after 8hours, you would still need 6 hours of sun with UVI 10 to have the first signs of damage.
In the worst case scenario where SPF 50 in sunlight is like SPF 20, then you would start with 20 and go down to 11 after 8hours, which still means 3hours with UVI 10 to get damage.
Things change drastically if you don't apply the right amount as shown in the table in your post (https://uv.substack.com/p/sunscreen-use)
Let's say you apply half the amount required, you would start with around 85% less protection, then let's consider that SPF50 is actually 20, it means that you start the day with SPF 3 (erythema after 45mins) and after 8h you would have SPF 1.3, which is the same as not having sunscreen on at all. That's maybe why people get a tan (damage) even with SPF 50, because they actually have SPF 3 or less.
Let's not even talk about applying 1/4th of the required amount.
So definitely the higher SPF might be that high for that reason, and I guess also the "apply every 2 hours" because they consider that people don't put enough on.
If you put enough sunscreen on (unless you are doing an activity where it's very likely you rub it off, in that case of course you need to reapply), as far as we can see from your posts and what I've written so far, you might get away with putting it on just once, you could stay in the sun a lot of hours with high UVIs and still don't get erythema. This might explain why in this study (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7947191/) they didn't see a lot of difference between 1 and 4 applications over an 8h period. Even more so if you stay under the beach umbrella most of the time and are careful not to rub it off.
Of course this is just theoretical, if you feel safer reapplying it 3 times, so be it! Better safe than sorry!
What do you think Richard? I would love to hear your thoughts about it!
The latest research indicates that Melanoma is usually caused by an interaction of three variable factors, namely, (1) genetic predisposition or skin type, (2) one or more occasions of serious sunburn in childhood or adolescence, and (3) inadequate immune system. The third factor might also be a combination of genetic factors and lifestyle including nutrition, stress, sleep deprivation, not getting a little daily sunshine. Personal risk of Melanoma increases when each of the contributing factors are high on the spectrum of causation. Melanoma might break out on a part of the body which was never exposed to sunshine but in that case, the other two factors would be very high risk.